Iran: is it a deal?

Posted 9 years ago

Yesterday’s announcement that a deal had been struck between the negotiating group and the Iranians over nuclear weaponry and sanctions gave me a small burst of hope. It indicated that President Obama has at last broken some of the shackles imposed by Israeli governments. If the US can face down its own mindlessly pro-Israel lobby (mainly composed of Jewish and Christian fundamentalists) and apply more pressure on Netanyahu’s government, there’s a glimmer of hope for Palestine.

Another glimmer of hope came from the thought that if the progressive forces in Iran can use the boost to their economy that will take place when sanctions are lifted, and thereby increase their political influence, then the shackles imposed on that great country by Shia Muslim fundamentalism will be loosened.

Then I read an article by Professor Scott Lucas on an excellent site called The Conversation. It gives quite a bit of detail about the interim agreement announced last night. As anyone who has followed this has known for some time, the Iranians had long ago rowed back from using their nuclear capacity to develop nuclear arms.

Maybe the Iranian fundamentalists had been pushing in that direction. Maybe Netanyahu had just been scaring the world to boost support for his reactionary policies. Either way, the Iranian negotiating team has agreed to remove any capacity it might have had for generating weapons in the foreseeable future.

But the key point in the article is that Iran’s conservative Supreme Leader Rouhani hasn’t publicly supported the deal. Thus there is a danger that, when the final agreement comes up for signature at the end of June, he’ll veto it. You can read the whole article here [Update, 4th April: President Rouhani appeared on UK TV last night saying Iran would respect the deal, so long as the other side did. Maybe that’s the support it needed; maybe he’s making wriggle room.]

Another danger is that the American Right (so Wrong) will fight against the deal, using their majorities in the House and the Senate to defeat Obama. This surprisingly neutral article in the Daily Mail indicates how the opposition to Obama is organising itself. Obama pledges to face them down, luckily.

Just so we keep reminding ourselves of how complicated this region is, Professor Paul Rogers (Peace Studies at Bradford Uni) has set out the Saudi-led coalition’s massive use of force against the Shia uprising in Yemen. As Iran grows is reputation (earning points in its support for Iraq’s efforts to oust the vile Islamic State (IS), and maybe turning some to listen again to the Syrian dictator Asad), the Sunni led by the Wahhabi fundamentalists are showing the Shia just how well armed they are.

Professor Rogers’ article (also in The Conversation) is here. It seems the Sunni fundamentalists are more interested in quelling the Shia than they are in confronting their cousins in IS and Al-Qaeda.

It’s pretty hard work, staying hopeful, isn’t it?