Humans are definitely causing climate change. We need to leave most of the known fossil fuel reserves in the ground. Exxon knew this in the 1970s. Copenhagen was a flop and the promises due at the UN’s Paris conference in December won’t be enough.
All these things you’ve heard. But there are crucial aspects to the story of climate change which are consistently ignored by the mainstream media, and they make a big difference.
1) Warming until 2030 is already in the post.
If we grounded every plane, closed down every power station and banned all the cars in the world overnight, the world would continue to heat up for at least another 15 years, due to the greenhouse gases we have already put into the atmosphere. This is because of the complex ways in which greenhouse gases and the heat they trap move around in the climate system.
Why does this matter? It means that if we only respond when the worst effects strike, it’ll be too late.
2) Climate models are optimistic.
You’ve seen those graphics where a map of the world turns orange, then red, then scarlet. Well, it’s worse than that. As the planet warms, some of the effects reinforce the problem. There are at least a dozen of these ‘positive feedbacks’, such as more frequent forest fires, and greenhouse gas methane being released from melting permafrost. But most of these effects are not included in the computer models used to advise politicians – or to create those graphics. Aubrey Meyer, whose ‘Contraction and Convergence’ approach has won major attention at climate negotiations, has been seeking answers about this for over a decade, and says the bottom line seems to be that models with all the feedbacks included would be too scary for the politicians.
Why does this matter? It means political targets are over-optimistic.
3) Free trade agreements stop green energy programs.
In 2010 the USA sued China for subsidizing wind power. China in turn targeted renewable energy programs in Italy and Greece. Later, Washington, via the World Trade Organisation, attacked ‘protectionist’ policies in India’s solar power plans, provoking India to threaten state level subsidies in the USA. These are a handful of the legal cases in which free trade regulations such as GATT are being used to stop investment in renewable energy. Almost all free trade agreements rely on ‘national treatment’ clauses which ban governments from favouring local industries. That removes a major incentive for governments to boost renewables.
Why does this matter? It means that further ‘free trade’ agreements, such at TTIP can only make things worse.
4) Divestment is beginning to work.
A couple of years ago it seemed like a long-shot that might make a marginal difference. Now the governor of the Bank of England is warning investors about fossil fuel investments becoming stranded assets. That’s in large part due to the increasing success of a campaign to persuade businesses, pensions and local governments to withdraw all their investments in fossil fuel companies. From the City of Oslo to the British Medical Association, the worldwide Lutheran Church to Oxford University, $2.6tn worth of investment has so far been withdrawn for a combination of moral and financial reasons, and a lot more is to come. Even Prince Charles recently told investors they were either ‘future-takers or future-makers’.
Why does this matter? It means we’ve found fossil fuel’s Achilles heel.
5) Culture change is just as important as technology change.
Anyone can go online and find out that (typically) their current lifestyle requires 3 planets. That’s if everyone lived how we do in rich countries. Mainstream economists and politicians are still labouring under the illusion that 9 or 10 billion people can all, one day, live like us – and that the economy can keep growing beyond that. But there is no Planet B, let alone Planets C, D or E from which to take the natural resources to grow such an economy. Contrary to the neoliberal economic theory which has entranced mainstream politicians, zero growth economies can be healthy and vibrant. Even Liberal philosopher JS Mill wrote in 1848 that ‘a stationary condition of capital… implies no stationary state of human improvement’, and now economists are studying how it would work. But such economic systems do require a shift of cultural values, away from consuming more and more, towards more leisure time, sharing out wealth, and strong communities. That’s a frightening message for the corporate elites, but an attractive idea for a lot of ordinary people.
Why does this matter? It means there’s a viable alternative to capitalism-off-the-leash.
6) The back-up options are insane.
‘Geoengineering’ solutions propose alternative ways to cool the planet, in the event of political failure to cut emissions in time. The Royal Society was amongst the first to research them seriously in 2009. Calling all the strategies ‘dangerous and unproven’, they found that taking carbon out of the atmosphere at vast expense was the best of a very bad bunch of options. Iron filings in the ocean don’t work. Sulphuric acid in the sky would deplete the ozone layer which makes life on Earth possible. Mirrors in space would take too long to set up… Their conclusion: hacking the planet is not a solution at all, but a ‘price we may have to pay’ for failure.
Why does this matter? It means we have to stop burning fossil fuels fast.
7) The biggest people’s movement ever seen is up and running.
From India to Mexico, South Africa to Norway, the biggest political movement in history is on the march. Whereas the American civil rights movement, or the suffragist campaign, had one policy goal, this movement is attacking a sprawling global problem on multiple fronts. That’s why it’s hard to report on. Yet in a survey of 10,000 people from all over the world, two thirds said leaders should do ‘whatever it takes’ to stop global warming. 20 million protestors are expected to take to streets all over the world for the Paris conference. Indigenous communities protecting their lands are hooking up with activist scientists, sustainable entrepreneurs, major charities and religious leaders in a ‘green blob’ that isn’t going away any time soon. And you can be part of it.
Why does this matter? It means a massive cultural change is already underway that doesn’t rely on government and mass media.
Matt’s book, Spiritual Activism, co-authored with Alastair McIntosh is out now on Green Books.